Game On!

From Inquirer co-blogger Jeff Shields:

As I'm writing this at 8:53 p.m. Tuesday, members of the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board are done with their deliberations and getting ready to come out and vote on the five standalone slots casinos in Pennsylvania.

We know this: Philadelphia will get two, Pittsburgh will get one, and the Lehigh Valley almost certainly will get one, either in Allentown or Bethlehem (not both - they're too close). Two proposals in the Poconos and one just outside of Gettysburg will fight for the last one.

InPhiladelphia, it looks like SugarHouse, at Delaware Avenue and Frankford (the billboards will help you find it!), is the absolute favorite. As one observer in the industry told me, "I haven't heard a scenario without SugarHouse."

Gaming analyst Robert LaFleur of Susquehanna Financial Group lays SugarHouse at 3-to-5 to win a slots license. LaFleur gives both Pinnacle, off North Delaware Ave. near the Girard interchange, and the Foxwoods Casino Philadelphia on Delaware Ave. (Columbus Blvd., for sticklers) in South Philly in second at 6-to-5 odds. TrumpStreet in Nicetown/East Falls follows at 5-to-2 and Riverwalk at 9-to-2.

I think LaFleur is on the money. Based on what I saw at the Gaming Control Board hearings, I think they are skeptical about Trump's past financial troubles and his Atlantic City properties. The board seemed very concerned that Trump and/or Pinnacle might concentrate on lower end clients in Pennsylvania (in concord with the fears of neighborhood groups) and focus sending more affluent customers to Atlantic City. If Trump (and Inquirer publisher Brian Tierney!) get a license, it will be because the board doesn't want to overload the waterfront and/or like the idea of a casino closer to the wealthy 'burbs.

As for Riverwalk, the board seemed concerned about its ownership structure, and its small site poses problems, though Mayor Street correctly pointed out on Monday that Riverwalk takes advantage of public transit (Spring Garden SEPTA stop) better than any of the projects. The board never seemed overly concerned about this -- but doesn't anyone take public transit to go out anymore? Riverwalk promised to help spruce up the SEPTA stop if chosen.

That would leave Pinnacle and Foxwoods scrapping for the other license. Pinnacle, built around a man-made lagoon on the waterfront and with the least neighborhood impact, would be an interesting choice, because if chosen with SugarHouse, would concentrate all casino action in Northern Liberties/Fishtown/New Kensington/Port Richmond. Traffic would be a mess at least until 2013, the projected completion of the new I-95 Girard exit, which would lead right into Pinnacle.

Foxwoods could very well be the second choice as well, but would South Philly stand for it? Just last week neighborhood activists unearthed a 1979 consent decree that prohibits the building of any additional exit ramps between the Ben Franklin and Walt Whitman Bridges without neighborhood consent. Foxwoods needs a ramp if it is going to address the already bad traffic situation on Delaware Ave. because of large retail outlets like Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Ikea. Pennsport neighbors were holding a protest vigil at the site tonight in protest.

While we've obviously concentrated on Philadelphia, and will continue to, the impact for the rest of the state will be huge.

In Pittsburgh, one of the three proposals, Isle of Capri, has promised to build a new hockey arena that would keep the Penguins NHL franchise in town. LaFleur and star analyst Andrew Zarnett of Deutschebank (Zarnett made no picks in Philly) rate Isle as the favorite because of that, but Harrahs/Forest City's proposal for Station Square and Don Barden's PITG Gaming on the North Shore offer formidable competition, but can they save the Pens?

Perhaps the most compelling story in the state is the contest between the Aztar Tropicana in Allentown and Sands Bethworks in Bethlemen, regarded as two of the best proposals in the state in the most fertile market outside of Philly and Pittsburgh. Only one can win.

Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski has practically begged the board for a license to rescue his ailing town. But experts predict that Bethworks plan for the abandoned Bethlehem Steel plant has to the potnential to be a showpiece for the state and draw people from Northern New Jersey so that Pennsylvania's aren't shouldering all the burden of the hoped for $1 billion in property tax relief.

Both LaFleaur and Zarnett like Sands as their favorite. LaFleur predicts the last license will to either one of two proposals in the Poconos, which have the potential to draw not just from New Jersey from the NYC metro area. Louis DeNaples, a prodigious political contributor, is rebuilding the Mt. Airy Lodge all by himself, and is seen as the favorite by LaFleur over Greg Matzel's Pocono Manor, an ambitious project which should not be counted out.

And if you thought the battle of Gettysburg was bloody, let's see what happens if the board licenses a casino a mile from the battlefield. While that market is seen as a potential gold mine, (Zarnett recommends it with Sands for the two at-large licenses), drawing customers from Maryland and D.C., the disqualifer may be that the project would be hurt tremendously if Maryland were to legalize slots, which may happen under a new, more gambling-friendly administration there. That may push Gettysburg out of the competition more than the local and national opposition to erecting a gambling hall near the sacred battlefield.

Based on all of the above, I would predict SugarHouse and Pinnacle in Philly (My sympathies to Allen Street!); Isle of Capri in Pittsburgh; and Sands-Bethworks and Pocono Manor (as a dark horse) for the five. Let's see what happens.